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| Photo courtesy of Newsday |
There is plenty good reason to ask this question, as there will definitely be some rust come Spring Training and perhaps longer.
For the sake of this article, I am going to strictly cover the on-field aspect of Matt Harvey, and give my projection of his 2015 performance.
It is no secret that Matt Harvey was among the best pitchers in baseball as evidenced by his All Star game start, and his WAR of 6 which finished in the top 5 among Major League pitchers (and even with him missing the last month of the season). And also, his FIP of exactly 2 led the league by a landslide. However, it is unknown what Harvey's production will be considering he missed all of last season. What is known though, is the production of pitchers coming off of Tommy John surgery.
Here are the following seasons coming off of Tommy John surgery for 5 five high level pitchers
Pitchers In Their First Season Back
Stats Courtesy of Fangraphs
| Pitcher | ERA | FIP | K/BB % | WHIP |
| Jordan Zimmermann (2011) |
3.18
|
3.16
|
14%
|
1.15
|
| Adam Wainwright (2012) |
3.94
|
3.10
|
15.9%
|
1.25
|
| Tim Hudson (2010) |
2.83
|
4.09
|
7.1%
|
1.15
|
| John Lackey (2013) |
3.52
|
3.86
|
15.6%
|
1.16
|
| Chris Carpenter (2009) |
2.24
|
2.78
|
14.1%
|
1.15
|
All five of these pitchers either came back and produced similar numbers to what they had pre-surgery, or in the case of John Lackey, pitched his best in years. Of all of these pitchers, only Adam Wainwright had numbers worse than his usual performance (and he returned to his usual form the very next season).
Of course there are pitchers who have gotten Tommy John and upon returning, were unable to get back to their pre-surgery form, but there aren't many of them where fans would need to worry about Harvey suffering the same fate.
Perhaps I seem to be overly optimistic about Harvey, but considering the fact that a currently very good pitcher is also just as good of a comparison for Harvey, a strong 2015 for him does not seem too far fetched.
Prior to his Tommy John surgery, this former number one overall pick of the 2010 amateur draft lit the world on fire after he was called up to the major leagues in 2011, that is, until he was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament. By now, you probably guessed I was talking about Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg.
Strasburg in my opinion has a few similarities to the Mets ace. They both have less than five years of big league service time, and also both possessing what are considered to be great pitcher builds, as well as the type of stuff that could only be seen in the Bigs video game series. Hell, they were even selected in the same draft just six picks apart. The icing on my comparison cake is that Strasburg is just over six months older than Harvey.
Here's the numbers for Strasburg pre-surgery and his first season back.
Stats Courtesy of Baseball Reference
As you can see, Strasburg's numbers weren't as strong in his return season, but he was able to continue pitching at a high level. I don't feel there is a need to discuss Strasburg's seasons past that point, but as most know, he was able to post numbers that looked more like his pre-surgery form.
It is inevitable that Harvey will not only need to spend some time to shake off the cobwebs, but he will also more than likely undergo an innings limit. However, most of the pitchers on the list I mentioned above had to undergo the same obstacles, and came out having terrific seasons.
More likely than not, Matt Harvey won't have the Cy Young caliber season he had in 2013. With past history as any indication however, I firmly believe he will still have very good numbers this season, while eventually returning to his 2013 form in 2016 and beyond. The only thing that has crossed my mind that concerns me is if the red flags concerning Matt Harvey off the field will eventually snowball and turn into a major problem.
Projected 2015: 3.12 ERA 3.01 FIP 1.17 WHIP 165 Innings 176 Strikeouts
Perhaps I seem to be overly optimistic about Harvey, but considering the fact that a currently very good pitcher is also just as good of a comparison for Harvey, a strong 2015 for him does not seem too far fetched.
Prior to his Tommy John surgery, this former number one overall pick of the 2010 amateur draft lit the world on fire after he was called up to the major leagues in 2011, that is, until he was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament. By now, you probably guessed I was talking about Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg.
 |
| Courtesy of FanShare |
Here's the numbers for Strasburg pre-surgery and his first season back.
Stats Courtesy of Baseball Reference
| Season | ERA | FIP | K/BB% |
| Pre-Surgery |
2.91
|
2.08
|
27.4%
|
| Return Season |
3.16
|
2.82
|
22.8%
|
As you can see, Strasburg's numbers weren't as strong in his return season, but he was able to continue pitching at a high level. I don't feel there is a need to discuss Strasburg's seasons past that point, but as most know, he was able to post numbers that looked more like his pre-surgery form.
It is inevitable that Harvey will not only need to spend some time to shake off the cobwebs, but he will also more than likely undergo an innings limit. However, most of the pitchers on the list I mentioned above had to undergo the same obstacles, and came out having terrific seasons.
More likely than not, Matt Harvey won't have the Cy Young caliber season he had in 2013. With past history as any indication however, I firmly believe he will still have very good numbers this season, while eventually returning to his 2013 form in 2016 and beyond. The only thing that has crossed my mind that concerns me is if the red flags concerning Matt Harvey off the field will eventually snowball and turn into a major problem.
Projected 2015: 3.12 ERA 3.01 FIP 1.17 WHIP 165 Innings 176 Strikeouts
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