"One of the reasons we've been fairly quiet is that we've got players with the potential to take us, to improve us by 10 games, which is what we need." the GM said. "We expect to take the next step forward...We won 79 games last year, which was an improvement over the year before, but we need to take a bigger jump next season. One of the reasons we have been quiet in the offseason is that we have quality players at each position. They're not all proven above-average major league players, but we're at the point where we have to give them the opportunity to perform."
As we know, nothing is guaranteed, and prospect hype can sometimes be false. I'm going to play devil's advocate here, and wonder what would happen if nothing went as planned in 2015. Let it be known that I DO NOT believe that these results will necessarily happen. I am, however, looking at the worst case scenario for everyone around the diamond.
- What if Lucas Duda's 2014 was a fluke? The 29 year old (Happy Birthday!) has been hinting at a big time power bat for years, so last season's breakthrough was a long-time coming. However, the fact that he is awful against southpaw pitchers could diminish his statistics mightily.
Duda vs. righties (2014): 146 Games, .273/.372/.543, 28 HR, 82 RBI.
Duda vs. lefties (2014): 83 Games, .180/.264/.252, 2 HR, 10 RBI.
"The Dude" will have to prove that he can A) repeat his performance against right handers, and B) show improvement against lefties, if he wants to elevate his game.
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| Courtest of nypost.com |
- What if Daniel Murphy completely falls apart defensively? We all know Murphy is a player without a position on the Mets, since the hot corner's are manned by Wright, and Duda, and he will never go back to the outfield again. He has gotten better at second base over the years, but has still produced underwhelming defensive numbers. Let's take a look at his defensive runs saved (Rdrs).
Murphy's Rdrs in 2009 (as 1B): +11
Murphy's Rdrs in 2014 (as 2B) -10
There's obvious discrepancy between the two numbers. Murphy is clearly more comfortable with first base than second base. As said earlier, he has improved defensively, but it's only been an ever so slight upgrade. In 2012 (first year as 2B) he had a -11 Rdrs, with -13 Rdrs in 2013. If his offensive dips, his value will drop mightily, and the Mets may have trouble moving him at the trade deadline if they chose to do so.
- What if Wilmer Flores struggles with the glove? This has been the question of the off-season, and probably can't be answered until Spring Training or even late-April. However, I will try my best to access this situation.
In a short stint at shortstop throughout 2014, Flores posted a -3 Rdrs, which is below average. However, some believe that his bat will help off-set the defensive struggles he may or may not have. All I know is, with a team that will rely on pitching, having strong defense up the middle is vital, and the Mets do not have that at all.
There is no guarantee that Flores' bat will even translate to the major league level, but it seems more likely that he'll be able to at least hold his own. If Flores comes out of the gate making errors left and right, who knows what the team will do. All we know is that the fans will (and rightfully so) get on Sandy Alderson if Wilmer cannot handle the position, and if they see another season of Ruben Tejada things may get hostile.
- What if David Wright doesn't rediscover his power? 2014 was the first year where Captain America, David Wright, did not hit double digit home runs. Many are blaming his back problems that he had for most, if not all, of the season, but that may not be the true source to his lost power.
Wright in 2008: 160 games, .302/,390/.534, 33 HR, 124 RBI.
Wright in 2009 (first year at Citi Field): .307/.390/.447, 10 HR, 72 RBI.
Wright in 2014: .269/.324/.374, 8 HR, 63 RBI.
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| Courtesy of newsday.com |
It's fair to say that the opening of Citi Field has had some effect on Wright's offensive production. The big gaps of the stadium have been slowly reduced over time, as it is now more of a neutral park. Right now, Wright's 2015 season can either go really really well, or horribly bad. His injuries could come back, despite him saying that there behind him, and could be a thorn in his side for some time. And, even if he does stay healthy, does he have another 20 homer plus season in him? Let's hope so.
- What if Granderson gets off to another horrid start like in 2014? The Mets brought in Granderson to be a solid power hitter that can protect Wright in the lineup. As a whole, his 2014 season was disappointing, but it was the start of the season that really had fans calling for his head.
In March/April 2014: .136/.252/.216, 1 HR, 7 RBI
In June 2014: ..300/.411/.522, 5 HR, 13 RBI
2014 statistics: .227/.326/.388, 20 HR, 66 RBI
A statistic that I found extremely interesting is that he actually did BETTER against left handed pitchers than righties. Also, I will list a less surprising stat, which shows his success on the road, versus his success at home.
Granderson vs lefties (2014): .245/.330/.413, 7 HR, 24 RBI
Granderson vs righties (2014): .220/.324/.379, 13 HR, 42 RBI
At Citi Field (2014): .195/.290/.340, 7 HR, 26 RBI
On the Road (2014): .259/.360/.436, 13 HR, 40 RBI
The additions of Kevin Long and a moved in right field fence should help Granderson, but if he has a horrible start to 2015, fans may get restless, as the excuses are beginning to run out for the 33 year old veteran.
- What if Juan Lagares takes a step back in his offensive development? Lagares will continue to amaze in the field, because that is pretty much guaranteed. However, for a team that desperately needs offense, his bat will need to continue to grow if he wants to be a long term piece with the organization.
Lagares in 2013: .242/.281/.352, 4 HR, 34 RBI, 6 SB
Lagares in 2014: .281/.321/.382, 4 HR, 47 RBI, 13 SB
His offensive output wasn't too flashy in 2014, so it shouldn't be too difficult to match those numbers. It's clear that he is still developing his game, as he began to steal more bases in the latter part of the season. He may be used as the team's leadoff hitter by default, and hopefully his bat starts to truly emerge.
- What if Michael Cuddyer cannot stay on the field? Let me get straight to the point. Cuddyer has had trouble staying off of the disabled list over the last couple of years. He has averaged 93 games over the past 3 seasons, and his age is doing him no favors, as he'll be 36 years old by Opening Day.
Courtesy of m.mlb.com
The bat should be there, as he is a career .279/.347/.466 hitter. Also, the continuity will be there, since he has been childhood friends with David Wright since both were in their high school years. However, if he pulls a hamstring, is out for an extended period of time, and someone like Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Matt den Dekker play right field full time, the fans will be restless, and the team will take a severe blow to their offense.
- What if Travis d'Arnaud doesn't elevate his game? d'Arnaud managed to be injury free in 2014, so I'll let his injury history slide on this one. His offense, however, was up and down, and hasn't gained confidence through the eyes of too many Mets fans.
d'Arnaud before demotion: 39 games, .180/.271/.273, 3 HR, 9 RBI
d'Arnaud after being recalled from Triple-A: 69 games, .272/.319/.486, 10 HR, 32 RBI
As I explained here, d'Arnaud is entering a huge season for his career. With Kevin Plawecki waiting in the wings, d'Arnaud must finally fulfill his hype by having a great season from start to finish in 2015 in order to prove that he is the Mets go-to guy. If he continues his performance similar to the 2nd half of 2014, he'll be fine. If not, it could be devastating for the 25 year old.
- What if the rotation doesn't take the next big step? For years we have heard about the massive amount of pitching in the Mets organization, and it has begun to come to fruition over the last two seasons. However, there are still plenty of players who are due for a breakout season, and others who need to prove that they are healthy.
I won't dive too much into the rotation, since it will likely be the clear-cut strongest section of the roster, but there is no guarantee that Harvey comes back and dominates, deGrom repeats his incredible 2014 performance, and that guys like Wheeler and Niese will continue to develop. Also, Syndergaard will play a big part in the Mets' future plans, and it will be very interesting to see if he can find success in Triple-A next season.
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| Courtest of espn.go.com |
- What if the bullpen depth proves to be too thin? If anything has been the Mets' Achilles heel over the years, it has been the bullpen. In 2014, the team saw a few pleasant surprises with Jeurys Familia, converted reliever Jenrry Mejia, Josh Edgin, and even Vic Black to a lesser degree. All four players are expected to break camp with the Mets, and the addition of Sean Gilmartin should help Josh Edgin carry the load of being a lefty reliever. Also, it appears that Dillon Gee (if not traded), Rafael Montero, and Carlos Torres will round out the 'pen by serving as long-relief pitchers.
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| Courtesy of nypost.com |
All things considered, the Mets bullpen is still very young and inexperienced. Sandy did not sign one single veteran to fill out the bullpen in case of an injury, and seems to be relying on the return of Bobby Parnell in lieu of adding a true setup man. Injuries and inexperience may derail the youngsters in the bullpen, especially come October if they manage to squeak in the playoffs. If the Mets are in contention by mid-season, I fully expect Sandy Alderson to evaluate the trade market for relief pitching.
All in all, it's clear that not everything is as perfect and clear as Sandy envisions it. The fact that he has not made a single impact move since the signing of John Mayberry Jr. still manages to baffle me, as well as his inability to trade away ANY of the pitching that we have an abundance of. There is still time left in the off-season, and he could squeak in a minor trade between now and Spring Training, but this roster appears to pretty much set. The question is, Will it be enough?
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