What Would Matt Harvey's Trade Value Be?

Courtesy of Fansided 

     In my last article, I posed the question of whether or not the Mets should move their ace Matt Harvey in the next few seasons. I figure I should make this clear, I believe there is very little chance the Mets actually try and move Harvey. I simply wanted to pose an idea for discussion. However, since we're at a slow part of the offseason, I figure I would present this article as more of a thought experiment. For hypothetical sake, what if the Mets decide that they want to move Matt Harvey in the next few seasons?
     Considering Harvey is under control until 2018 (and isn't even arbitration eligible until 2016), he would very likely net a great return of top prospects and possibly even very good major leaguers.
     It is pretty obvious that the sky is the limit for Matt Harvey. What isn't so obvious is what his trade value would be. When I say that, I don't mean who would or wouldn't want him, but more of a matter of what teams would give up for him. Remember, it is very rare for a young pitcher with ace potential to hit the open market. However, there are a few instances that come to mind.
     In 1997, a twenty five year old fireballer with a devastating change-up finally started to put it all together to the tune of a 1.90 ERA and winning the AL Cy Young award in the process. This fireballer is the newest Hall of Famer, Pedro Martinez.
     Despite his rise to stardom, the cash strapped Montreal Expos knew they couldn't afford Pedro and figured they would lose him to free agency after the '98 season anyways, so they traded him to the Boston Red Sox for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas.
     As much as Pedro proved he was truly an ace with Boston, the Expos still got a fair haul at the time considering they had little leverage in trade talks since it was known they needed to trade him. Entering the '98 season, Pavano was not only the top prospect in the Red Sox system, but he was also ranked as the ninth best prospect in the sport.
     Tony Armas, who was the player to be named later in that deal, was also a highly regarded prospect, as he was a twenty year old who the next year would find himself as the number five ranked prospect in the Expos system.

At the time, the Expos got a lot of quality talent for their young ace.
Photo Courtesy of Sports With Balls Show

     It is clear that the haul the Expos got was a very good one for a one year rental that they made public they couldn't afford. Another comparison that comes to mind are the rumors that went around last month regarding Nats pitcher Stephen Strasburg.
     If you read my article from last week asking whether or not Matt Harvey will be able to return to his dominant self, you are probably thinking I compare him to Strasburg way too much. However, not only are they similar in terms of career path, but also in terms of trade value.
     Upon the Nationals signing Max Scherzer, rumors spread like wildfire of the Nats making Strasburg available. A month later, and the dust has cleared that Strasburg will stay with the team.. for now at least.
     No one knows exactly what the Nationals were asking in return, but it seems a few websites that were tasked with estimating what it would take were what I feel is fair. One stated negotiations with a team like the Red Sox would begin and end with 2014 super prospect, Xander Bogearts and a potential top of the lineup catalyst in Mookie Betts. More likely than not, GM Mike Rizzo would likely ask for a either a package of Mookie Betts, Henry Owens and a player to be named later, or Bogearts and Betts.
     Considering Strasburg is not only a young ace, but he also still has two more seasons of team control, he is certainly worth that type of trade return. On the other side of the fence, it doesn't seem like a lot of players would be given up for Strasburg. However, they don't need to be because pre-arbitration players are incredibly valuable. This brings me to my next point. It is very important for me to point out something I stated earlier in the article, Matt Harvey is a pre-arb player.
     Pre-arb players have tremendous value because not only are they paid at or slightly higher than the league minimum, but they also are under team control for anywhere between four to six seasons. In the arbitration process, a players salary will certainly climb toward the millions (and in recent cases, tens of millions), but it won't make a significant climb until years later. As much as Harvey will see a large increase, the largest increase for a first time arbitration eligible player was $10 million by Ryan Howard. However, when looking at the records throughout the first three years of arbitration, they mostly belong to position players. You will also see that pitchers early on in arbitration typically will earn less than position players. So as you can see, even with the increases in arbitration salary recently, the arbitration panel will typically side with position players more often in arbitration cases.
     Because of the fact that he has perhaps the upside to become a top 5 pitcher in all of baseball, as well as being under team control until 2018 (and should be relatively affordable until later on in his arbitration process), Matt Harvey's trade value would be through the roof even coming off of Tommy John. What would Matt Harvey's trade value be exactly, I'm still not sure. With his ability and years of team control though, if he has a strong bounce back season (which he probably will even with the innings limit and rust), he may end up having what would be perhaps the best trade value in baseball.