Fantasy Baseball: Do Walk Years Affect Performance?

     For years, it has been hypothesized that a player entering the final year on his contract is set to have a great season. In theory, this makes a ton of sense, as the player will be motivated to work harder in order to have a good season, and then be able to command a big contract in free agency.
     I was incredibly curious to see if this theory is actually true, so I figured I would do some research. I also figured that in the process of doing so, I would share my results with all of you. Let's get right down to it.

     Here are the seasons of players entering their walk year.

Players in their final year before Free Agency

Stats courtesy of Fangraphs

Player	AVG	OPS	wRC+	wOBA	WAR	Difference?
Robinson Cano (2013)	0.314	0.899	142	0.384	6	Same
Jose Reyes (2011)	0.337	0.877	142	0.376	5.8	Better
Johnny Damon (2001)	0.256	0.687	85	0.304	1.9	Worse
Russell Martin (2014)	0.290	0.832	140	0.370	5.3	Better
Prince Fielder (2011)	0.299	0.981	160	0.410	4.9	Same
Brian McCann (2013)	0.256	0.796	121	0.347	2.7	Same
Jason Bay (2009)	0.267	0.921	135	0.395	4.5	Same
Manny Ramirez (2000)	0.351	1.154	181	0.477	4.8	Better
Jason Giambi (2001)	0.342	1.137	193	0.465	9.2	Better

     As you can see, only one of the nine players provided here fared worse than their normal career line. However, you can also see that less than half of the players did better here. Before we jump to any conclusions, here is a sample of ten pitchers entering their contract years.

Pitchers in their final year before Free Agency

Stats courtesy of Fangraphs

Pitcher	ERA	FIP-	K/BB%	WHIP	WAR	Difference?
Zack Grienke (2012)	3.48	78	16.8%	1.20	4.8	Same
Jon Lester (2014)	2.46	73	19.4%	1.10	6.1	Better
Mark Buehrle (2011)	3.59	95	7.5%	1.30	3.4	Same
Max Scherzer (2014)	3.15	74	20.9%	1.18	5.6	Same
C.J Wilson (2011)	2.94	76	14.4%	1.19	5.4	Better
A.J Burnett (2008)	4.07	80	15.2%	1.34	5.3	Same
C.C Sabathia (2008)	2.70	68	18.8%	1.11	7.2	Better
Anibal Sanchez (2012)	3.86	87	14.5%	1.27	3.7	Same
Barry Zito (2006)	3.83	111	5.5%	1.40	2.3	Worse
Jason Schmidt (2006)	3.59	87	11.2%	1.26	3.9	Same

     Sorry if the graph looks a bit odd at the WHIP section, but you get the point of the graph. As you can see, like the hitters, the majority of pitchers remained the same as their career norms in terms of performance. In fact, with the pitchers, there were even less that saw an improvement in their walk season than the hitters. 

     My thoughts prior to doing this research was that as much as contract years leading to improvement made sense, I didn't see how. I get how it means motivation for the players to do better so they can be paid handsomely in free agency, but more likely than not, the players aren't doing anything much differently than what they did to find success before.

     When you inevitably hear rumblings going on in draft websites and among the players in your league about a player A. being primed to have a big year because it's his final season before hitting the open market, take it with a grain of salt.