Fantasy Baseball: Top Ten First Baseman

     First Base is a position where offense is expected. First base is such a deep offensive position to the point that seventeen first baseman posted an wRC+ of 100 or better. Compare that to Catcher, where about five did that. Better yet, Joe Mauer who has ranked at the top three Catchers for years (and would've at least been a top ten fantasy Catcher), doesn't even make my list of top ten first baseman. Without any further ado, here are my top ten first baseman.

NY Times

     The following rankings will be based off of their stats from the past 3 seasons, as well as what I feel they will produce in 2015 (remember fantasy owners, you are paying for what they will give you in the future, not for what they have already done). I am also taking into account the availability of each player also. That is why you may see some players ranked higher than others.
     1. Paul Goldschmidt
          He may have missed significant time with a broken hand, but he will certainly be ready to roll come this season. Even before the broken hand, he had 19 homers, a 155 wRC+ and a .938 OPS. The final two stats were good for 2nd best at the position. With a favorable home ballpark and being an elite five category contributor, Goldschmidt is the type of player you would want to build your team around.
     2. Edwin Encarnacion
          Maybe it's his impeccable history of being able to hit for power while limiting his strikeouts, being a lock for 30+ homers while staying moderately healthy, or having third base eligibility in some leagues, but Edwin Encarnacion is quietly a player that a fantasy owner can build their team around. Hitting between Bautista and Donaldson, while playing in a favorable hitters park helps his case quite a bit too.
     3. Miguel Cabrera
          To be honest, I'm not sure how I feel about Miggy. Part of me still views him as a deserving first rounder and a top five player. Yet, another part of me feels like he is just being selected as a first rounder for his past success. By no means did he have an unproductive season (in fact, he still had a very good season), but I am getting the notion that the injuries are starting to rack up. Yes he's all good and fine now, but considering he's had to deal with a major groin injury since the 2013 postseason, and now this injury scare gets me thinking that it could be either that, or a sign of things to come that will hinder his production. He still sits at #3 for now though because even in an injury filled year, he was still great. He could slip as soon as next season though, beware.
     4. Adrian Gonzalez
          Since 2011 here is Gonzalez's average numbers... 23 home runs, 110 RBI, a wRC+ of 130 and a triple slash line of .301/.362/488. He is the model of consistency (and consistency of being very good, might I add). The best part about Gonzalez, he is also consistently overlooked. On average, he is being selected as the 8th first baseman off the board, and even though that is still a starter in most leagues, Gonzalez is far better than where he is usually selected. You can use this to your advantage, as you can use your earlier picks to shore up other positions and then pick Gonzalez, a lock to give you major production.

Rizzo looks as pumped as we are for Baseball season
Credit to Rant Sports

     5. Anthony Rizzo
          In 2014, Anthony Rizzo finally showed the promise that made him not only the centerpiece of the Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox trade, but also the player that Theo Epstein was very high on. Among all qualified first baseman, Rizzo's wRC+ was 2nd in the league, and posted an ISO that was the 8th best in the major leagues. The reason I didn't rank him higher is because first base is a position  that has a lot of capable producers, so as a result, the ones who have shown consistency are the ones who are high on this ranking. Fangraphs steamer projects a big season for him and quite frankly, I do too since his walk and strikeout rates remained the same. Plus, he hit more flyballs (and far less to the infield), which shows his power surge is indeed for real. Expect him to climb a few spots on my rankings for next season.
     6. Jose Abreu
          I know a few things about Jose Abreu. First things first, he rewarded me tremendously when I drafted him in the 10th round last year. I also know that the pop in his bat is for real. However, I don't see his average carrying. His overinflated .356 average with balls in play is something that will certainly take a tumble, as Abreu is not the type of player that has the speed to maintain that. He does have the ability to hit the ball hard though, where he can see his BABIP remain in the .310's-.320's and steamer currently projects his BABIP to sit at .319. If that happens, Abreu can certainly be counted on for stellar production. The reason he sits at #6 though is that there are no ties. Otherwise, he would have ranked at #5 alongside Anthony Rizzo.
     7. Lucas Duda
          This might seem a tad generous, but there is plenty of good reasons why Duda is ranked ahead of steady producers like Freeman, Pujols and Victor Martinez. Duda posted an ISO that was the 4th best among all qualified first baseman last season. All my other reasons for why Duda is here to stay was covered in one of my past articles, "Should we really expect a dud from Duda?" And to put the icing on the cake, in some formats, over 20 first baseman are coming off the board before Duda.
     8. Freddie Freeman
          I'm going to be honest, I'm not crazy about Freddie Freeman. I liked him a lot back in 2013 because he wasn't getting any recognition, as well as how I felt like he had a lot of untapped potential as a hitter. However, with a mix of a bad lineup around him, being selected at around the third to fourth round, and not providing a lot of power (never has posted an ISO above .200 in the major leagues. Since 2012, 13 first baseman have an average ISO of .200 or more). If Freeman wasn't highly valued, he would probably move up a few spots (remember, a player's no good to you if you can't get him at a reasonable price).

Sorry to be a bit unprofessional here, but look at that swing!
Courtesy of Outside Pitch/MLB

     9. Albert Pujols
          Little known fact, Pujols is my favorite player outside of David Wright. Another fact that isn't little known is that Pujols proved he still has a year or two left of great production. Maybe not "Pujolsian", but still numbers that will keep him among the top ten first baseman. Plus, hitting behind Mike Trout will provide the slugger with many RBI opportunities and further bolster his fantasy production.
     10. Adam Laroche
          It probably comes off as condescending to unfairly criticize Freddie Freeman, yet I am praising Adam Laroche. However, Laroche has a bit more power than Freeman and can be taken a lot sooner. Seriously, while Freeman is being taken at latest in the fourth round as the 6th best first baseman, Laroche is being taken 8 rounds and 15 first baseman later on average. You may be compromising average, but you're getting a guy who has a 162 game average of 27 homers, 92 RBIs and a triple slash of .264/.362/.455. Plus, he's hitting behind the likes of Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton, as well as playing half his games in a left handed hitters paradise. Talk about getting a bang for your buck.

Just Missed The Cut

     1. Victor Martinez
          Yes he had a spectacular season. No he didn't miss the cut due to possible regression. He is on the outside looking in because he will miss all of spring training due to another knee injury. Considering his age and the fact that he will have to essentially get in his spring training reps during the season, Martinez does not look like a good bet to repeat his great season. Because first base is so deep, he just misses for the aforementioned two reasons. 

     2. Matt Adams

     3. Justin Morneau
          Despite being a DL candidate, the golden rule when it comes to fantasy is that any capable offensive player looks like a star when he calls coors field home. 

Backups Who Could Become Starters

     1. C.J Cron

     2. Brandon Belt

     3. Jon Singleton
          Cut down on the whiffs! This is a similar problem to Chris Davis (more on him below), but the difference with Singleton is that he isn't as highly valued and has only a slightly lower ceiling. Plus, Singleton only played in his first full season, so it is more realistic for him to cut down on the whiffs than Davis.
     4. Chris Carter
          Same story with Singleton, but I don't see him cutting down on the whiffs. The whiffs are something that will have to be accepted for owners who are desperate for big power. 

I want to wait and see if Votto bounces back before I let him into my top 10 again
Courtesy of ESPN

Not Even Close

   1. Joey Votto

   2. Prince Fielder
          Fielder has every right to feel confident about bouncing back this season. With his home ballpark, he very well could. With his age and average draft position though, I won't even bother.

   3. Chris Davis
          Strikeouts strikeouts strikeouts.... Enough said.

Notable Omissions

     I intentionally left out Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Todd Frazier and Mark Trumbo because as much as they are eligible for first base, they are better off being drafted at the other positions they are eligible for since they aren't as deep. I already covered Posey, and the other three will be covered when I talk about third base and the outfield, respectively.