Friday, March 20, 2015

Fantasy Baseball: Top 60 Outfielders

Photo courtesy of Gammons Daily
     This is perhaps the deepest offensive position besides First Base in my opinion. This is because Outfield can provide owners with just about anything they want. They can have that extra bump in the slugging category from the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, consistency from the likes of Hunter Pence and Matt Holliday, and remember, Outfield also consists of a who's who in fantasy names. Without further ado, here are the top 60 outfielders in the fake sport.   

  The following rankings will be based off of their stats from the past 3 seasons, as well as what I feel they will produce in 2015 (remember fantasy owners, you are paying for what they will give you in the future, not for what they have already done). I am also taking into account the availability of each player. Those last two factors are big reasons for why you may see some players ranked higher than others. Essentially, this list ranks the best values because in the end, what matters most is not the player you get, but the value you get out of that player. 
  1. Mike Trout
  2. Andrew McCutchen
  3. Giancarlo Stanton
  4. Carlos Gomez
  5. Jose Bautista
  6. Adam Jones
  7. Hunter Pence
  8. Yasiel Puig
  9. Shin-Soo Choo
  10. Jason Werth
  11. Matt Holliday
  12. Starling Marte
  13. Kole Calhoun
  14. Christian Yelich
  15. Justin Upton
  16. Michael Brantley
  17. Ryan Braun
  18. Corey Dickerson
  19. Alex Gordon
  20. Jason Heyward
  21. Mark Trumbo
  22. Bryce Harper
  23. Ben Revere
  24. Melky Cabrera
  25. Brett Gardner
  26. Jorge Soler
  27. Marlon Byrd
  28. Nelson Cruz
  29. Jacoby Ellsbury 
  30. Matt Kemp
  31. Joc Pederson
  32. Denard Span  
  33. Carlos Gonzalez
  34. Billy Hamilton
  35. George Springer
  36. J.D Martinez
  37. Alex Rios
  38. Mookie Betts
  39. Adam Eaton
  40. Marcell Ozuna
  41. Yoenis Cespedes
  42. A.J Pollock
  43. Avisail Garcia 
  44. Lorenzo Cain
  45. Brandon Moss
  46. Wil Myers
  47. Rusney Castillo 
  48. Yasmany Tomas
  49. Jay Bruce
  50. Oswaldo Arcia
  51. Leonys Martin
  52. Torii Hunter
  53. Gregory Polanco
  54. Juan Lagares
  55. Carlos Beltran
  56. Khris Davis
  57. Dalton Pompey
  58. Charlie Blackmon
  59. Matt Joyce
  60. Curtis Granderson
Showing some love for the former Met
Courtesy of CBS
The Hidden Value Players
     1. Marlon Byrd, Reds
          Two words, market inefficiency. That's how I describe players like Marlon Byrd and Adam Laroche. These are two players that have been cast at the wayside due in large part to their age (and in today's time, we're all guilty of over-adoring the shiny new toy). However, they have still given fantasy owners very steady production, and could be had at near the end of almost every draft this year. In fact, over the past two seasons, Byrd has had a wRC+ of 122, a better total than Adam Jones, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward and Alex Gordon.
     2. Adam Eaton, White Sox
          I see Adam Eaton having a big year. By the way, congratulations to Eaton on his new contract! Considering Eaton posted a .300 average to go along with 15 stolen bags and 76 runs in limited time, that could only be the beginning. It also helps to note that Eaton will be hitting in front of both Jose Abreu and Adam Laroche, so the runs should continue to mount (possibly even at 85-90 runs). The projections don't seem to favor Eaton, but that's in large part because his .356 BABIP last season was much higher than his other totals at the Major League level. However, note how I said Major League level, because his .356 BABIP is right in line with his Minor League BABIP. I see Eaton sustaining the .300 average while stealing 20 and scoring 85. 
     3. Brett Gardner, Yankees
          Wanna take a guess at which player in the last two seasons has been among the top 25 among Outfielders in wRC+? Since I put that question right under Brett Gardner, you probably know what the answer is. His total is better than Yoenis Cespedes, and is literally one point behind Jacoby Ellsbury. I'm a bit surprised Gardner isn't more of a trendy sleeper, but use that to your advantage, I know I probably will in my draft. 
     4. A.J Pollock, Diamondbacks
          Seeing as how Pollock is projected to be selected as the 50th Outfielder off the board, there already is a chance that he could go undrafted in shallower formats. However, he is a player that can easily provide owners with a 10/15 season, and give a .275-.280 average to go along with 75 runs. I'm siding with the Fangraphs steamer and ZIPS here. ZIPS is a bit optimistic on the average, but I think the power and speed is right on.   
     5. Melky Cabrera, White Sox
          Slow and steady wins the race, and with Melky, that couldn't be any more true. Besides his *2012, he hasn't really posted numbers that will wow people, yet at the same time, he has an overall stat line that looks pretty solid. Also, similar to Adam Eaton, Cabrera could see more runs than his already impressive 81 from hitting directly in front of Abreu and Laroche.
That my friends, is the look of disappointment you may get if you expect Jay Bruce to bounceback
Photo Credit to Rant Sports
The Overvalued
     1. Matt Kemp, Padres
          I already talked about why I feel Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury are heavily overvalued this fantasy baseball season here.
     2. Jacoby Ellsbury, Yankees
     3. Jay Bruce, Reds
          I don't know, man. I honestly just don't see a bounce back year happening. I don't see him being terrible either, but considering he's being taken 26th among Outfielders, I feel that's a steep price to pay for a very low floor.
     4. Billy Hamilton, Reds
          You can get very similar value from Ben Revere, a guy being picked several rounds and dozens of picks later. In fact, take a look at the comparison of the core stats for both Revere and Hamilton. And by the way, Dalton Pompey could end up providing similar production too, maybe better. Essentially, Hamilton is way more replaceable than he's made out to be in fantasy.
Player AVG  BABIP Stolen Bases Runs
Ben Revere 
(162 game average)
0.291
0.321
48
77
Billy Hamilton (2014)
0.250
0.304
56
72
Photo credit to isportsweb
The players you can get later due to injuries
     1. Hunter Pence, Giants
     2. Jayson Werth, Nationals
     3. Shin-Soo Choo, Rangers
          When Choo had that ankle injury at the end of april last year, I knew that would linger on. Now that the injury seems to be behind him, I fully expect Choo to bounce back and post numbers close to his 2013, actually. No one seemed to notice, but he was his usual self right before the injury. I think that at 32, this could be his last year he gives you elite production. 
     4. Mark Trumbo, Diamondbacks
          As a guy who owned Mark Trumbo, I was disappointed, but because of that, I probably like him even more for this year. He hit 14 home runs even in limited action, and as seen with Albert Pujols, plantar fasciitis was the cause of sapped power. Trumbo probably will be gone at around rounds 10-11 (maybe even later than that) in most ten team formats compared to around the 8th last year. 

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