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| Salvador Perez is great in real life, but his recent trends scare me Courtesy of Fansided |
After doing analysis on the projected first round and whether or not contract years actually affect a players performance, it's time to tell you five players I wouldn't even touch with a ten foot pole in this years draft.
1. Matt Kemp OF, Padres
When he was tearing it up in the second half of the season and finally being healthy, I thought to myself I could end up drafting Kemp at a discounted price one would pay for a 3rd outfielder (between rounds 7-8), and he would provide the production equivalent of a top 25 outfielder. However, seeing him ranked among the top 20 outfielders by ESPN, and even taken in the third round of a mock draft among experts shows that the word about Kemp definitely got out. Hell, in some auction formats, he's even going for $20+ dollars.
This would all make sense if he was still with the Dodgers, but seeing as how he is now calling one of the worst home parks in baseball to hit in his new home, I definitely have some concerns. According to rotogrinders.com, Petco Park had the worst park factor for right handed hitters by a decently wide margin. Oh, and apparently Matt Kemp has arthritis in both hips. This certainly doesn't help his reputation of being injury prone whatsoever. Kemp could still be very productive in 2015, but I am not willing to use potentially a third round pick to find that out.
This would all make sense if he was still with the Dodgers, but seeing as how he is now calling one of the worst home parks in baseball to hit in his new home, I definitely have some concerns. According to rotogrinders.com, Petco Park had the worst park factor for right handed hitters by a decently wide margin. Oh, and apparently Matt Kemp has arthritis in both hips. This certainly doesn't help his reputation of being injury prone whatsoever. Kemp could still be very productive in 2015, but I am not willing to use potentially a third round pick to find that out.
2. Doug Fister SP, Nationals
Last year it was the fear of Tommy John surgery that made me avoid him. Of course, it proved to be nothing and many got a steal in what was a mid to late draft selection. This year though, it's the fact that his peripherals don't look too promising. Fister did manage to have a sparkling 2.41 ERA, as well as a 1.07 WHIP and he also finished eighth in the NL Cy Young voting. However, if you looked at his other stats, you'll come across a few things that don't look too good.
If you were to dig deeper regarding Doug Fisters seemingly great 2014, you'll notice he posted a 3.93 FIP, as well as the fact that despite pitching to contact, he posted his worst ground ball to fly ball ratio since 2010. This usually does not sit too well with pitchers like Fister because despite his ability to limit walks (he posted the best walk rate of his career last year), his limited ability to strike hitters out means that he'll be relying on fly balls for most of his outs. The problem with this is that as you know, it is impossible to hit a ground ball over the fence.
So yes, fly balls are easier outs, but they're also likely to go over the fence. Plus, Fister's .262 BABIP is unattainable seeing as it is 30 points lower than his career average, and his strand rate was a career high by a wide margin. Seeing as how Fister is likely to be among the first 30 starting pitchers taken off the board, he is being taken as a #2 starter in 10 team, mixed league formats. It seems to me that with his shady peripherals, and unfavorable ratios, Fister is a serious bust candidate.
Last year it was the fear of Tommy John surgery that made me avoid him. Of course, it proved to be nothing and many got a steal in what was a mid to late draft selection. This year though, it's the fact that his peripherals don't look too promising. Fister did manage to have a sparkling 2.41 ERA, as well as a 1.07 WHIP and he also finished eighth in the NL Cy Young voting. However, if you looked at his other stats, you'll come across a few things that don't look too good.
If you were to dig deeper regarding Doug Fisters seemingly great 2014, you'll notice he posted a 3.93 FIP, as well as the fact that despite pitching to contact, he posted his worst ground ball to fly ball ratio since 2010. This usually does not sit too well with pitchers like Fister because despite his ability to limit walks (he posted the best walk rate of his career last year), his limited ability to strike hitters out means that he'll be relying on fly balls for most of his outs. The problem with this is that as you know, it is impossible to hit a ground ball over the fence.
So yes, fly balls are easier outs, but they're also likely to go over the fence. Plus, Fister's .262 BABIP is unattainable seeing as it is 30 points lower than his career average, and his strand rate was a career high by a wide margin. Seeing as how Fister is likely to be among the first 30 starting pitchers taken off the board, he is being taken as a #2 starter in 10 team, mixed league formats. It seems to me that with his shady peripherals, and unfavorable ratios, Fister is a serious bust candidate.
3. Salvador Perez C, Royals
The Kansas City Royals took the baseball world on a roller coaster ride, and Salvador Perez was a major reason for the highs experienced. However, it is pretty clear to me that he is far more valuable in real-life than he is in Fantasy. As you can see, his recent trends are pretty gruesome.
The article from the link I just gave is great, as it points out how Perez's whiff and strikeout rates have been climbing year to year. Plus, it is important to note that his walk rate is horrific with a BB/K ratio that is among the top 15 worst in baseball the past 2 seasons. Walks don't have much of an effect on players fantasy output, but as seen with Josh Hamilton, pitchers saw that he was swing happy outside the zone and they punished him for it.
With the way he handles pitching staffs, his arm behind the plate and great framing ability, I would take him over almost any other catcher in baseball. However, since this is fantasy baseball, I wouldn't draft him among the top 5 catchers like he is projected to be. To build on that further, I honestly wouldn't even draft him to be a starter in fantasy.
The Kansas City Royals took the baseball world on a roller coaster ride, and Salvador Perez was a major reason for the highs experienced. However, it is pretty clear to me that he is far more valuable in real-life than he is in Fantasy. As you can see, his recent trends are pretty gruesome.
The article from the link I just gave is great, as it points out how Perez's whiff and strikeout rates have been climbing year to year. Plus, it is important to note that his walk rate is horrific with a BB/K ratio that is among the top 15 worst in baseball the past 2 seasons. Walks don't have much of an effect on players fantasy output, but as seen with Josh Hamilton, pitchers saw that he was swing happy outside the zone and they punished him for it.
With the way he handles pitching staffs, his arm behind the plate and great framing ability, I would take him over almost any other catcher in baseball. However, since this is fantasy baseball, I wouldn't draft him among the top 5 catchers like he is projected to be. To build on that further, I honestly wouldn't even draft him to be a starter in fantasy.
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| The Yankees overpaid for a player that's like the one they already have. Don't make a mistake like that Courtesy of ESPN |
4. Jacoby Ellsbury OF, Yankees
Among most fantasy baseball sites and magazines I've encountered, Jacoby Ellsbury is being ranked among the top ten outfielders and is projected to be between a late first rounder, to mid second round pick. To this I say, really? Basically, his value is tied up in runs and stolen bases. He certainly held up the stolen base promise with 39 of them. However, the effect of a weakened Yankee lineup hurt his run total.
The whole weakened Yankee lineup thing? That does not seem to be a fluke, seeming as how they're relying on old or injury prone players, some of those players are both. Oh and another thing, Ellsbury is giving his owners eerily similar production to another outfielder..
2 year Averages
Player A. AVG .284 HR 12 ISO .138 wRC+ 110
Player B. AVG .264 HR 12 ISO .154 wRC+ 109
Player A was Jacoby Ellsbury. Player B was his own teammate, Brett Gardner. Gardner is ranked as the 33rd overall outfielder, which in 10 team mixed leagues, is a fourth outfielder. When taking into account that Gardner has given nearly identical production with a slight drop off in the average and stolen base department (but is still good). When putting this into perspective, it would take at the latest, a mid second round pick to acquire Ellsbury, but Brett Gardner can be had at around the tenth round. So the question is, is Jacoby Ellsbury heavily overvalued, or is Brett Gardner heavily undervalued?
5. Dee Gordon 2B/SS, Marlins
So... Dee Gordon is ranked as a top 5 second baseman. ESPN sees him as the #8 overall second baseman. My question is, why? No offense to Dee Gordon, but for what he gives you in stolen bases and perhaps runs, he takes away with batting average and others. The BABIP he posted was high, but because he is a speedster and relies on beating out hits on the ground, that is a BABIP that can be expected to carry on in 2015. However, his numbers state regression in 2015 isn't a possibility, it is inevitable.
It helps to mention that he only has a brief history of not stinking, and to be honest, he is only being evaluated as what he is from one really good half. In the second half, he posted a BB/K ratio of .09 in the second half, good for second worst in baseball (the worst is the guy I talked about earlier in Sal Perez). Think of his 1st half as his ceiling with a slight bump up in the runs category since he's hitting in front of Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich. His floor though, well he has been sent to the minors before even though he was out of options.
Thank you very much for reading this article, and hopefully it will help you out for your upcoming draft. Considering the last noteworthy move happened with the Padres signing James Shields last week, I will be posting Fantasy articles more often as most peoples drafts are fast approaching. Check out my article for next time, when I give more of an optimistic outlook where I rate the top players at each position, starting with Catcher.
Among most fantasy baseball sites and magazines I've encountered, Jacoby Ellsbury is being ranked among the top ten outfielders and is projected to be between a late first rounder, to mid second round pick. To this I say, really? Basically, his value is tied up in runs and stolen bases. He certainly held up the stolen base promise with 39 of them. However, the effect of a weakened Yankee lineup hurt his run total.
The whole weakened Yankee lineup thing? That does not seem to be a fluke, seeming as how they're relying on old or injury prone players, some of those players are both. Oh and another thing, Ellsbury is giving his owners eerily similar production to another outfielder..
2 year Averages
Player A. AVG .284 HR 12 ISO .138 wRC+ 110
Player B. AVG .264 HR 12 ISO .154 wRC+ 109
Player A was Jacoby Ellsbury. Player B was his own teammate, Brett Gardner. Gardner is ranked as the 33rd overall outfielder, which in 10 team mixed leagues, is a fourth outfielder. When taking into account that Gardner has given nearly identical production with a slight drop off in the average and stolen base department (but is still good). When putting this into perspective, it would take at the latest, a mid second round pick to acquire Ellsbury, but Brett Gardner can be had at around the tenth round. So the question is, is Jacoby Ellsbury heavily overvalued, or is Brett Gardner heavily undervalued?
5. Dee Gordon 2B/SS, Marlins
So... Dee Gordon is ranked as a top 5 second baseman. ESPN sees him as the #8 overall second baseman. My question is, why? No offense to Dee Gordon, but for what he gives you in stolen bases and perhaps runs, he takes away with batting average and others. The BABIP he posted was high, but because he is a speedster and relies on beating out hits on the ground, that is a BABIP that can be expected to carry on in 2015. However, his numbers state regression in 2015 isn't a possibility, it is inevitable.
It helps to mention that he only has a brief history of not stinking, and to be honest, he is only being evaluated as what he is from one really good half. In the second half, he posted a BB/K ratio of .09 in the second half, good for second worst in baseball (the worst is the guy I talked about earlier in Sal Perez). Think of his 1st half as his ceiling with a slight bump up in the runs category since he's hitting in front of Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich. His floor though, well he has been sent to the minors before even though he was out of options.
Thank you very much for reading this article, and hopefully it will help you out for your upcoming draft. Considering the last noteworthy move happened with the Padres signing James Shields last week, I will be posting Fantasy articles more often as most peoples drafts are fast approaching. Check out my article for next time, when I give more of an optimistic outlook where I rate the top players at each position, starting with Catcher.
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