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| Courtesy of Grantland |
The following rankings will be based off of their stats from the past 3 seasons, as well as what I feel they will produce in 2015 (remember fantasy owners, you are paying for what they will give you in the future, not for what they have already done). I am also taking into account the availability of each player. Those last two factors are big reasons for why you may see some players ranked higher than others. Essentially, this list ranks the best values because in the end, what matters most is not the player you get, but the value you get out of that player.
- Clayton Kershaw
- Felix Hernandez
- Chris Sale
- David Price
- Max Scherzer
- Stephen Strasburg
- Madison Bumgarner
- Zack Greinke
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Jon Lester
- Corey Kluber
- Johnny Cueto
- Adam Wainwright
- Cole Hamels
- Matt Harvey
- Jacob Degrom
- Hisashi Iwakuma
- Phil Hughes
- Hyun-Jin Ryu
- Alex Cobb
- Jeff Samardzija
- Gerrit Cole
- Alex Wood
- Tyson Ross
- Jake Arrieta
- Gio Gonzalez
- Jose Quintana
- Brandon McCarthy
- Anibal Sanchez
- Ian Kennedy
- Ervin Santana
- Carlos Carrasco
- Garrett Richards
- Masahiro Tanaka
- Dallas Keuchel
- Sonny Gray
- Kevin Gausman
- Drew Hutchison
- Julio Teheran
- Chris Archer
- Scott Kazmir
- Jake Odorizzi
- Homer Bailey
- James Shields
- Michael Wacha
- Doug Fister
- Jake Peavy
- R.A Dickey
- Michael Pineda
- Danny Salazar
- Drew Smyly
- Shane Greene
- T.J. House
- Derek Holland
- Taijuan Walker
- Rick Porcello
- Trevor Bauer
- Danny Duffy
- Carlos Martinez
- Wily Peralta
- Francisco Liriano
- James Paxton
- A.J Burnett
- Mike Minor
- Andrew Cashner
- Matt Shoemaker
- Nate Eovaldi
- Yordano Ventura
- Bartolo Colon
- Matt Cain
- Mat Latos
- Henderson Alvarez
- Lance Lynn
- Chris Tillman
- Drew Pomeranz
- Jered Weaver
- Noah Syndergaard
- Edinson Volquez
- Jose Fernandez
- Dan Haren
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| Credit to Jays Journal |
The Hidden Value Pitchers
1. Drew Hutchison, Blue Jays
Perhaps he is a trendy sleeper, perhaps not, but I think either way, Hutchinson may be one of the deepest sleepers in all of fantasy. He may be pitching in an unfavorable home ballpark as a fly ball pitcher, but he still managed to eat 184 innings, while also striking out nearly a batter per inning, and doing this while walking hitters at under the league average rate. I see Hutchison as a pitcher with fantasy #3 starter upside as a guy that can throw 185-190, while maybe not striking out hitters at the rate he did last year, but still have a very good rate. That might prove to be great value for a guy that I got with my second to last pick in my draft, and if your draft is coming up, you could do the same.
2. Brandon McCarthy, Dodgers
I think Brandon McCarthy is gonna surprise a lot of people this year (basically almost everyone that doesn't work for the Dodgers). I think it was covered all throughout last season, but his peripherals such as FIP and SIERA looked great last season, and add that on top of the fact that he has started to generate a ton of groundballs the past two seasons (which with a great Dodgers infield defense will surely help him). The best part about him is that he is so undervalued, he may even go undrafted in some mixed leagues, which basically means you could swoop him up and get a very quality starter if you are in need of one.
I think Brandon McCarthy is gonna surprise a lot of people this year (basically almost everyone that doesn't work for the Dodgers). I think it was covered all throughout last season, but his peripherals such as FIP and SIERA looked great last season, and add that on top of the fact that he has started to generate a ton of groundballs the past two seasons (which with a great Dodgers infield defense will surely help him). The best part about him is that he is so undervalued, he may even go undrafted in some mixed leagues, which basically means you could swoop him up and get a very quality starter if you are in need of one.
3. Ervin Santana, Twins
Did you know that since 2013, Ervin Santana has had a better rate of swings and misses than Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg? Yes that is really true. Plus, Santana is also pitching in a very favorable home ballpark. I'm not sure if he will provide you elite numbers like the pitchers I just mentioned, but he should give you a good amount of punchouts while eating innings at a highly affordable price.
Did you know that since 2013, Ervin Santana has had a better rate of swings and misses than Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg? Yes that is really true. Plus, Santana is also pitching in a very favorable home ballpark. I'm not sure if he will provide you elite numbers like the pitchers I just mentioned, but he should give you a good amount of punchouts while eating innings at a highly affordable price.
4. T.J. House, Indians
Maybe I'm a year too early, but I'd rather be too early than too late when it comes to ranking fantasy sleepers. What I like about House is his ability to limit walks, as evidenced by his 5.1% in the majors last season. He may have a small sample size, but Fangraphs projection systems like Steamer project House to have an overall solid season that could make him a big help in deep leagues, and AL only formats. This could also be a year where House can firmly cement himself as a sleeper candidate for leagues in 2016.
Maybe I'm a year too early, but I'd rather be too early than too late when it comes to ranking fantasy sleepers. What I like about House is his ability to limit walks, as evidenced by his 5.1% in the majors last season. He may have a small sample size, but Fangraphs projection systems like Steamer project House to have an overall solid season that could make him a big help in deep leagues, and AL only formats. This could also be a year where House can firmly cement himself as a sleeper candidate for leagues in 2016.
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| Photo Courtesy of NY Post |
The Overvalued
1. Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees
This isn't a matter of ability, because we all know Tanaka's awesome. It's really because he had the torn UCL last season, and opted for rehab. He seems fine right now, but his elbow could blow up again at any point. Draft with caution.
2. James Paxton, Mariners
I don't get the hype over a guy who only pitched 74 innings in the Major Leagues last year, and has 98 career innings. It would be one thing if he lit the world on fire in that sample size like Carlos Carrasco (and even with him, I'd rather him show me that again). However, Paxton has only struck out 20.2% of the hitters he has faced in the Majors (which is barely above the league average of 18-19%). Paxton has also walked nearly 10% of batters faced last year, and despite showing strikeout potential in the minors, he also showed that his control woes very likely won't be going away. Plus, it seems like his lack of getting hitters at the Major League level to swing and miss is not a fluke. Also, his mechanics don't look too good, and they leave him susceptible to injury. He is a fantasy #5 starter, but is being treated like he is on the verge of becoming a fantasy #2.
I don't get the hype over a guy who only pitched 74 innings in the Major Leagues last year, and has 98 career innings. It would be one thing if he lit the world on fire in that sample size like Carlos Carrasco (and even with him, I'd rather him show me that again). However, Paxton has only struck out 20.2% of the hitters he has faced in the Majors (which is barely above the league average of 18-19%). Paxton has also walked nearly 10% of batters faced last year, and despite showing strikeout potential in the minors, he also showed that his control woes very likely won't be going away. Plus, it seems like his lack of getting hitters at the Major League level to swing and miss is not a fluke. Also, his mechanics don't look too good, and they leave him susceptible to injury. He is a fantasy #5 starter, but is being treated like he is on the verge of becoming a fantasy #2.
3. Jered Weaver, Angels
No offense to anyone who likes Jered Weaver, but the fact that he's even seen as fantasy relevant in anything other than deep leagues and AL only formats put him on this list. Yes he eats innings, but he isn't giving you any strikeouts, plus he has been giving up homers like crazy in recent years (and that doesn't seem to be a fluke, as his fastball velocity has been reported even lower this year than his 86.3 MPH average last year).
4. Julio Teheran, Braves
I think Tehran could pull a Johnny Cueto and make a career of laughing at his peripherals, but there's a reason I call it a Johnny Cueto. Besides him, nobody has gotten away from what I like to call the regression monster, not even Matt Cain after developing a reputation for it. Teheran's strand rate was normal, but his FIP, SIERA and even a decline in first pitch strike% and overall zone%. We also all know he has a weak Braves team behind him, especially defensively without Jason Heyward (he is a fly ball pitcher, so one can only imagine how much Heyward may have helped him). Combine all of these together, and I see Teheran as a bust this season.
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| Courtesy of CBS |
The Pitchers You Can Get Later Due To Injuries
1. Jose Fernandez, Marlins
He may not be coming back until after the All-Star break, but rest assured, he will be a force when he returns. Make sure to keep tabs on Fernandez so that when he's nearing a return, you can nab him off waivers before anyone else in your league.
2. Homer Bailey, Reds
I really don't think Homer Bailey is bad. In fact, I think for the price you could acquire him at (he went undrafted in my league), you could get a very good backend starter in mixed leagues. Bailey showed last year that he was still able to induce grounders, while keeping his walk total reasonable and striking out opposing hitters at a good rate. What makes Bailey even more of a steal is that since he went down with an elbow injury that will more often than not, see most owners pass on him.
I really don't think Homer Bailey is bad. In fact, I think for the price you could acquire him at (he went undrafted in my league), you could get a very good backend starter in mixed leagues. Bailey showed last year that he was still able to induce grounders, while keeping his walk total reasonable and striking out opposing hitters at a good rate. What makes Bailey even more of a steal is that since he went down with an elbow injury that will more often than not, see most owners pass on him.
3. Alex Cobb, Rays
There is definitely risk in drafting Cobb. As much as his recent forearm injury is being brushed aside as nothing major, our very own Zack Wheeler had a similar attitude toward his elbow. I by no means am saying Cobb will suffer a similar fate, but it's something to consider when drafting, but could be something that could help you nab a fantasy #2 when healthy. If his injury really is no big deal, then you my friend, just had a steal (rhyming accidentally).
There is definitely risk in drafting Cobb. As much as his recent forearm injury is being brushed aside as nothing major, our very own Zack Wheeler had a similar attitude toward his elbow. I by no means am saying Cobb will suffer a similar fate, but it's something to consider when drafting, but could be something that could help you nab a fantasy #2 when healthy. If his injury really is no big deal, then you my friend, just had a steal (rhyming accidentally).
4. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers
Wanna know a secret? Did you know that you can get a pitcher with a career 3.17 ERA, good peripherals and a microscopic walk rate in the 13th round? That's what happened with me, and that was even with essentially the top 20 players being kept due to keeper rules (which is awesome for me, because I got to keep Mike Trout). Keep in mind that Ryu will miss the first month of the season, as he will start the season on the DL with a similar shoulder injury he had last year where he missed a month. However, when he returns, expect him to perform like the fantasy #2 starter that he is. If he doesn't work out, no big deal, as it's not like you spent a lot to get him. If he does return without missing a beat though, you'll feel like you should be in jail with the steal you just made off with.
Wanna know a secret? Did you know that you can get a pitcher with a career 3.17 ERA, good peripherals and a microscopic walk rate in the 13th round? That's what happened with me, and that was even with essentially the top 20 players being kept due to keeper rules (which is awesome for me, because I got to keep Mike Trout). Keep in mind that Ryu will miss the first month of the season, as he will start the season on the DL with a similar shoulder injury he had last year where he missed a month. However, when he returns, expect him to perform like the fantasy #2 starter that he is. If he doesn't work out, no big deal, as it's not like you spent a lot to get him. If he does return without missing a beat though, you'll feel like you should be in jail with the steal you just made off with.
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