Monday, March 9, 2015

Fantasy Baseball: Top Ten Shortstops

   
Courtesy of Zimbio
     I'd be lying if I said I don't think Shortstop is one of the weakest positions in fantasy right now. Now, there are certainly good options, but the top ranked Shortstops are considered either injury prone, or inconsistent. When I see lists ranking the top Shortstops, the majority of them seem to be the same. I personally find this a tad strange because since Shortstop is shallow, I feel like the considered "top ten" is wide open. That's why on my list, you may find some interesting choices. With all of that said, let's get this list underway.
     The following rankings will be based off of their stats from the past 3 seasons, as well as what I feel they will produce in 2015 (remember fantasy owners, you are paying for what they will give you in the future, not for what they have already done). I am also taking into account the availability of each player. Those last two factors are big reasons for why you may see some players ranked higher than others. Essentially, this list ranks the best values because in the end, what matters most is not the player you get, but the value you get out of that player. 
     1. Ian Desmond, Nationals
          Out of all the shortstops on this list, Ian Desmond is the best out of all of them due to his combination of being a 20/20 player, as well as providing good stats across the board. Plus, he has played in at least 150 games in 4 of his first 5 full seasons, and the one time he didn't, he still played in 130 games. My only concern is his ugly strikeout rate (over 28%, up around 6 points from his career line), and his declining OPS and wRC+ over the last few seasons. Still though, I'd take that risk for arguably the best player at his position.
     2. Hanley Ramirez, Red Sox
          I would love to go off here and say Hanley Ramirez is incredibly overrated and all that stuff. However, from a fantasy baseball perspective, he could have himself a monster season. Since 2012, HanRam ranks second in the Majors among Shortstops in wRC+. The reason why I have Hanley this high and Troy Tulowitzki farther down (more on that later), is because I am buying into the whole playing left field will keep him healthy. Maybe he'll be a disaster out in left field, but with the bat, I am expecting what could be a 20 homer, 35 double player with a .290 average to boot. The problem is he hasn't really posted great overall lines, and the one time he did which was in 2013 (he only played in 86 games). Still though, I am banking on him staying healthy this season due to less wear and tear playing Shortstop everyday. 
     3. Jhonny Peralta, Cardinals
          It's kind of telling when the number three ranked Shortstop is a player who had battled inconsistency for several years. However, he's also the same player that has #1. ranked in the top five in ISO and wRC+ for Shortstops the past few years (finished first in ISO and second in wRC+ last season), and #2. can be had at a bargain due to an ADP of around 183, or 15th among shortstops. Hell, most formats don't even rank him in the top ten among Shortstops. Considering his power and lineup around him, Peralta is likely to have himself another big year and be perhaps one of the biggest steals of 2015. 
     4. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
          For fans who read my first ever article, please don't think I hate Tulo. I really don't, it's just that one of my main bugaboos in baseball players (especially in fantasy, since it's only numbers) are an inability to stay on the field. Yes, I get that Tulowitzki when healthy could be a top five player in all of baseball. How many times have you heard that now? Better yet, how many times have you actually seen him be healthy over the course of a full season? To further this, Tulo is also being selected as the second Shortstop off the board at worst in most drafts. Okay, sorry for sort of crapping on him. Now time for the positives. Well, all you need to know are that people raving over his skills are in the right for that. He really is one of the most talented baseball players in the Majors, but about that hip? (insert bad hip pun here).
Credit to Zimbio
     5. Jose Reyes, Blue Jays
          Jose, Jose Jose Jose, Jose... Jose. Man, I miss that. I also miss Reyes' elite production (which he provided with us). However, the combination of that, as well as his injury prone history could see him fall a few spots due to owners being scared off. Trust me, he may be ranked highly, but I guarantee you he could end up falling in your lap later than you think. Reyes actually played in 143 games last season, and only played in under 125 games once after an injury plagued 2009. Jose also stole 30 bases again, being the eighth time in his career he did so. So perhaps he isn't a healthy player by any means, but he's not made of glass either, and can also give help in the average and stolen base departments. Plus, Toronto is sporting what could be the great grandson of murders row batting behind Reyes. My advice is, he could be valuable to your team if you don't reach for him.  
     6. Starlin Castro, Cubs
          We know Castro will provide in the batting average department, and I believe his .292 average season was for real. This is evidenced by how his BABIP of .337 fell right in line with his BABIP of .335 in his Major League career exempting a perhaps out of character 2013. However, I feel like he doesn't really provide much else, as he doesn't offer much in the power and speed categories, since he only has 15 homer (.145 ISO) power. Last season also marked the second straight year Castro finished with lower than ten steals. This could be a trend rather than fluky. Still though, if the injuries continue to pile up on the guys at the top of the list, while Castro keeps up the batting average while seeing the benefits of what could be great years by Anthony Rizzo and Jorge Soler, he'll move up by quite a few spots next year.
       7. Jimmy Rollins, Dodgers
          Slow and steady wins the race, or in this case, boring and reliable wins your fantasy leagues. This applies very well to players like Jimmy Rollins. Only once in his career has he played in under 135 games. Rollins has also stole fewer than 20 bases only one time in his Major League career. Not only is he durable and reliable for stolen bases, but he has a strong Dodgers lineup behind him that could help pad his runs total. Rollins also can provide a little bit of pop as evidenced by his 17 homer season last year. I'll simply say this, count on a line in the neighborhood of .270/.320/.385 with 13-15 homers, 25 stolen bags and at least 80 runs. Those stats aren't anything fancy on their own, but put together and they make for a very reliable option. 
     8. Xander Bogearts, Red Sox
          It's incredible how quickly people forget. Now this is more of banking on Bogearts' future rather than looking at past production. It's not too long ago (last year, to be exact) that Bogearts was being hailed as the future of the Red Sox, and how he was going to be a future MVP. The thing is, he still can be, and even if he doesn't do that, he can still help out your fantasy team immensely by giving power, as evidenced by his .199 career Minor League ISO. I'm sure you also heard plenty about how he played badly while at Third (which makes sense due to the amount of work it takes to learn a new position at the Major League level, and how distracting it can be mid-season). I'm sure you also heard plenty about his numbers being much better when he played his natural position of Shortstop last season too. It also helps to know that it was only his first full season, and should look to improve greatly next season. 
     9. Wilmer Flores, Mets
          Among us Mets fans, one side is going to be very right about Wilmer Flores, and the other side is going to be very wrong about him. We'll see which one is which. I already gave an analysis on Flores in a past article. The spark notes though are that he's shown an innate ability throughout his professional career to barrel up the ball and find the gaps as evidenced by his high career Minor League BABIP. I realistically see Flores turning out to have a Howie Kendrick skill set, and post numbers like him too with better power. 
    10. Erick Aybar, Angels
          On the surface, Erick Aybar is nothing special and doesn't seem much better than guys like J.J Hardy, Elvis Andrus or Alexi Ramirez. However, like Jimmy Rollins, Aybar has been steady and boring. You know Aybar isn't gonna post an OPS of over .800 (or even approaching .750 for that matter), but you also know that Aybar can provide an average in the mid to high .270's, while not hurting you with strikeouts (only a 11.3% career strikeout rate). He also could give you a lot of runs if he hits second. This is because everyone knows that just about anyone who can get on base a decent amount of times could give you over 80 runs when they're hitting directly ahead of Trout and Pujols. 
Just Missed The Cut
     1. J.J Hardy, Orioles
          There's no way his power evaporates again like it did last season, there's just no way. Well, his average fly ball distance did decline from 283 feet in 2013, to 277 feet last season. With his home ballpark and lineup around him, he could easily put 2014 behind him. Plus, some formats are predicting 18 other Shortstops will be selected ahead of him, so it's worth taking the risk.
     2. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
          This seems to be the recurring theme among Shortstops. They're either inconsistent/injury prone, or consistent and boring. Ramirez seems to fit more in the second description. The problem with Ramirez is that his out of character first half could see owners overvaluing him (and leading to requiring a serious reach to get him) and in turn, make him a serious 2015 bust candidate. If he wasn't being selected as the 
Backups Who Could Become Starters
Photo Credit to ESPN
     1. Chris Owings, Diamondbacks
     2. Matt Reynolds, Mets
          I think Reynolds could easily have himself a great first season in the Majors, while becoming a valuable middle infield option in fantasy and in real life. I don't know how likely that is, but it is a lot more likely Reynolds plays his way toward that than for most other players.
     3. Javier Baez, Cubs
          If he cuts down on the strikeouts, he'll probably be the number one ranked shortstop (or Second base, depends on eligibility) on next year's list. Yes, he has that kind of ceiling. Still though, the whiffs will be a very high mountain for him to climb.
Not Even Close
     1. Elvis Andrus, Rangers
          Yes, there is the potential to be a contributor in the average and stolen base departments, but he also showed last year that if he doesn't get 30+ stolen bases, he has no use on your roster. Plus, rankers like ESPN still see him as an elite top ten option. Frankly, I don't see it. Especially because of the overpay it would take to get him. 
     2. Andrelton Simmons, Braves

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