Should We Really Expect a Dud from Duda?

Photo courtesy of Jim McIssac from Newsday

      Lucas Duda had a great season. That is obvious as evidenced by his 30 home runs in a pitcher friendly park. It is also important to note his .228 ISO ranked 12th among all Major Leaguers. However, there has been some talk about a possible regression this season. The question I have, is the talk of a Lucas Duda regression overblown? 
     It's pretty funny when you look at the abundance of power hitting first baseman over the years and until last season, the Mets hadn't had one in quite some time. Duda has filled a role the team hasn't had since the days that Carlos Delgado trotted out to first. Now let me cut to the chase, I believe a Lucas Duda regression has a right to be talked about, but I just don't see it happening.
     One of the main points people bring up when talking about a Duda regression is the fact that he wasn't really all that good going into 2014. As much as that seems to be true, there is also a flaw that is found in that statement. Going into 2014, Duda averaged only 107 games per year and stepped up to the plate at an at the time career high of 459 times in 2012. Now I don't think I need to give a link to his injury history. We all know that Duda didn't get much playing time over the years and perhaps rightfully so, as he was found to be passive and it hurt him. Plus, his natural position of first base was occupied by Ike Davis, and looked too sloppy in the outfield to start there.
     Despite his lack of playing time, Duda still managed to put together numbers that led to optimism. Per Baseball Reference, Duda averaged a .186 ISO from 2010 to 2013. Plus, his average OPS+ was a 109 in that span. Considering the average OPS+ for the league is 100, Duda really was an under the radar type player. Perhaps the reason he was considered to be bad for those years was because he was never given a chance to prove himself. The interesting thing about this is that fans did seem to notice his upside for years as a middle of the order slugger.
     Upon doing some research on Duda, I found something that was very interesting, his swing and contact tendencies. Per Fangraphs, his walk rate was at 11.6% in 2014, right alongside his career lines, and also trimmed his strikeout rate to it's lowest since 2011. Speaking of Duda's tendencies, his fly ball rate was 49%, a career high that only helps the fact that a mere 7% flies didn't go farther than the infield, lower than his career percentage. Per Fangraphs pitch f/x, Duda swung at around the same as his career rates, but something stands out. He made around the same contact on pitches outside the zone, but with pitches in the zone, his contact percentage jumped to six percentage points higher than 2013. I think it also helps to note that Duda's BABIP last year was at .283, along the lines of his career total of .292. So what does all of this information mean? Perhaps it means that Duda didn't do anything different from what he's done in his major league career. It also means that Duda did not experience some incredible stroke of luck and that his results came from a few factors, more playing time, making better contact and mostly, improved confidence.

Photo credit to Anthony J. Causi of NY Post

     It has been noted in the past that Duda was not exactly the most confident guy on the field. However, it seems clear to me that it may have been simply a result of him being told to play in the outfield, which was entirely foreign to him. Now that he has been given the green light to start at first base, Duda seems to have a lot more confidence, perhaps confidence that was there all along, but like Lucas Duda, it just needed to be given a chance.
    Now not only are the statistics in Duda's favor, but he most certainly passes the eye test. At six foot four and two hundred fifty five pounds, Duda looks the part of a imposing slugger, and at one point years ago was referred to as one of the strongest men in the major leagues.
   One aspect of Duda's game that is seldom discussed is his solid defense at first base. It's no secret that he was awful in the outfield. There's no reason to discuss it on here, but if you want to see for yourself, check his Fangraphs page. If you looked at it, you'll notice something interesting. As much as he was bad in the outfield (last time bashing Duda's outfield defense, I promise), he actually graded out as consistently average over at first base. He even saved the team five runs last season.
   If Duda does end up regressing in 2015, he would still likely be a perfectly productive player, as he was never all that bad offensively. The campaign Fangraphs Steamer projects him to have is what I see as a very good floor for Duda, but he could very well outperform that in the batting average department. The only bugaboo for Duda is his inability to hit left-handers, but that can easily be fixed with a platoon if the Mets would like to go that route.
  All in all, I feel like Lucas Duda should be incredibly productive for the Mets, and with his price, he is a bargain over at first. At the very least, I feel that barring any injuries, Duda should be penciled in for 25 home runs and probably flirt with 30, as well as having an average around what it was last year. Combine that with league average defense, and you have a valuable player. Does he have his flaws, of course he does, but with his renewed confidence, his strength, making better contact and possessing a surprisingly quick swing could show his 2014 season being more of a breakout than anything. With all of these factors, I firmly believe that Lucas Duda will prove that 2014 was the first step towards becoming a quality major leaguer for years to come.