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| Credit to newyork.cbslocal.com |
When the news broke about Curtis Granderson agreeing to a contract with the Mets, the majority of Mets fans were filled with joy. Me on the other hand, I slammed my phone against the counter of where I work. Of course though, I wanted to give the deal the benefit of the doubt and give Granderson a chance in a Mets uniform.
I can vividly recall going to opening day for the Mets and seeing Granderson step up to the plate on five occasions, and he finished the day with as many hits as he had entering it. Not to mention he struck out a few times and looked relatively lost at the plate that day. As I took the train home, I overheard some Met fans say that he was already a bust. I thought to myself that the thought of calling a guy a bust on opening day was erroneous, right? Well, in most cases that is true, but Granderson continued to look lost at the plate for the first two months, until he underwent a scorching hot month and a half that looked to dissipate all those concerns about his contract. Needless to say, he went more cold than a room with the refrigerator left open after the All Star Break, and then became hot like a summer in South Korea in September. Point is, he was streaky. Now perhaps his lowly .265 batting average on balls put in play (exactly 35 points lower than his career BABIP of .300) could be pointed to as the reason for his lowly .227 average. His first season in Queens was anything but pretty, but it is safe to say that if he was more fortunate on balls put in play (a rise in BABIP to the low .280s shouldn’t be unreasonable) he could see his average creep up towards the .240’s. Combine that with 20 Home runs, a walk rate of 12% which was nearly identical to his 2011 campaign (which saw him finish 4th in the American League MVP voting). It also helps to note that his strikeout rate was 21.6%, one of the lowest of his career. It certainly seems like I gave quite the misleading title, but because I think Granderson seems like an awesome guy, I wanted to point out reasons I could very well be wrong. Hell, with Kevin Long (Yankees long tenured hitting coach until the end of 2014) as the new hitting coach, he may know Curtis as a hitter better than most and be able to help rejuvenate his swing and approach. Honestly though, I wouldn’t bet on it though. The thing is as much as he seems down to earth and great, this is not the level where nice guys are the best. Something that seems to be a glaring stat to me is Granderson’s fWAR of exactly 1. Among 209 Major Leaguers with at least 400 plate appearances, only 49 had a WAR worse or equal to Granderson’s. Now it is promising to see he posted a 108 wRC+ and better plate discipline surely helps. However, it is imperative that I bring to your attention three things before you make your comeback player of the year predictions. These three things I list will play into one another. The first thing I must note is his age. This should be a given as he will be entering his age 34 season, and will have three years left on his deal (that pays 16 million annually!) The second thing that is important to consider is his swing. If you have seen Curtis Granderson throughout the years (which you likely have), you will notice how he loads up his hands.
I can vividly recall going to opening day for the Mets and seeing Granderson step up to the plate on five occasions, and he finished the day with as many hits as he had entering it. Not to mention he struck out a few times and looked relatively lost at the plate that day. As I took the train home, I overheard some Met fans say that he was already a bust. I thought to myself that the thought of calling a guy a bust on opening day was erroneous, right? Well, in most cases that is true, but Granderson continued to look lost at the plate for the first two months, until he underwent a scorching hot month and a half that looked to dissipate all those concerns about his contract. Needless to say, he went more cold than a room with the refrigerator left open after the All Star Break, and then became hot like a summer in South Korea in September. Point is, he was streaky. Now perhaps his lowly .265 batting average on balls put in play (exactly 35 points lower than his career BABIP of .300) could be pointed to as the reason for his lowly .227 average. His first season in Queens was anything but pretty, but it is safe to say that if he was more fortunate on balls put in play (a rise in BABIP to the low .280s shouldn’t be unreasonable) he could see his average creep up towards the .240’s. Combine that with 20 Home runs, a walk rate of 12% which was nearly identical to his 2011 campaign (which saw him finish 4th in the American League MVP voting). It also helps to note that his strikeout rate was 21.6%, one of the lowest of his career. It certainly seems like I gave quite the misleading title, but because I think Granderson seems like an awesome guy, I wanted to point out reasons I could very well be wrong. Hell, with Kevin Long (Yankees long tenured hitting coach until the end of 2014) as the new hitting coach, he may know Curtis as a hitter better than most and be able to help rejuvenate his swing and approach. Honestly though, I wouldn’t bet on it though. The thing is as much as he seems down to earth and great, this is not the level where nice guys are the best. Something that seems to be a glaring stat to me is Granderson’s fWAR of exactly 1. Among 209 Major Leaguers with at least 400 plate appearances, only 49 had a WAR worse or equal to Granderson’s. Now it is promising to see he posted a 108 wRC+ and better plate discipline surely helps. However, it is imperative that I bring to your attention three things before you make your comeback player of the year predictions. These three things I list will play into one another. The first thing I must note is his age. This should be a given as he will be entering his age 34 season, and will have three years left on his deal (that pays 16 million annually!) The second thing that is important to consider is his swing. If you have seen Curtis Granderson throughout the years (which you likely have), you will notice how he loads up his hands.
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| Granderson’s swing load. Photo courtesy of wordpress.com
He originally would load his hands so far back and have his bat in a very strange position compared to most swings. Granderson was able to get away with it because he has always been gifted with very quick hands. This is where the first point comes in though, because as he is getting older, he will start to lose not only just enough strength to fall behind the best in the world, but he will also lose some of the speed his hands are able to produce. The third thing that is one of the main reasons for why I chose this article title, Curtis Granderson’s decline. I mentioned earlier how he finished 4th in the AL MVP voting, but since then he has seen his peripheral numbers decline.
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Per Fangraphs Curtis Granderson’s Decline
| Year | Average | ISO | wRC+ | WAR |
2011
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0.262
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0.290
|
146
|
6.7
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2012
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0.232
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0.260
|
116
|
2.2
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2013
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0.229
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0.178
|
97
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1.4
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2014
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0.227
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0.161
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108
|
1.0
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I am not saying Granderson is destined to become Jason Bay 2.0, but the chart above does not lie in that Granderson saw his numbers peak during his MVP caliber 2011 campaign, and has been subtly been on the decline since. I believe Granderson can still be a serviceable player, but considering the fact that he is getting paid $16 million annually for the next three seasons, one should expect more than 19 home runs and the 1.2 WAR Steamer projects him to produce. Basically, the signing of Curtis Granderson is already a mess to me because the Mets are tied up in 16 million dollars plus a starting outfield spot for a player that is on the decline. Moves like this were what got the Mets to five consecutive losing seasons.
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